Football
French Cup football isn't that more exciting than their league football. I found a stream of the Guingamp v Le Mans and traded on the draw, it as one of those matches where there wasn't much cash on the lay side so it was grab it whilst you can and hold on until the profits were acceptable or the risk of a goal was high. This match also had the lowest odds for the draw that I have seen for a match, at half time the odds for a draw dropped to as low as 2.02ish - a normal match will have odds between 2.30 and 2.60.
Liverpool v Sunderland on the other hand had odds very high for the draw - which is understandable given the merits of the two sides. Liverpool looked very capable of scoring but without Torres they were relying on players like Ngog to score - who up until last night hadn't scored. This made trading tricky for me as I thought the odds were good value but with the odds at 3.30 to 3.00, the tick sizes are 0.05 which means that against market sentiment the odds should be dropping at about 0.04 per minute and if Liverpool were attacking then the length of the trade could be up to 2 minutes - as Cloughy said it only takes 2 seconds to score a goal. So I rarely traded to start off with and saw the opportunity to make money as half time approached - I felt that if it remained goalless at half time the odds should drop by a few ticks - So with about 90 seconds left to play in the first half, I backed at 2.92 and at half time I traded out at 2.74.
The second half started and I was determined not to rush into trading as I wanted to see how the teams played and how the markets reacted. Just after half time the markets take time to settle down again and wont start the downward spiral until traders are confident that the draw is the most likely result. Fifty Two minutes into the match and Liverpool scored, I hadnt done one trade in the second half and knowing the odds would be very low on Liverpool, I closed the laptop and ended trading for the night.
Results:
£25.25 - 2.25%
No comments:
Post a Comment