Football all day - lets face it Sunday's there isnt anything else on the box.
11:30 Vitesse v Ajax - came to the game a little bit late, the score was 1-1 Vitesse looked the more dangerous of the two sides but Ajax are Ajax, you know the team of total football, Johann Cruyff and all that. Just because a side has a big reputation and are a well recognised team doesnt make them automatically any good and this Ajax side is a pale comparison of their former selves. I had traded up a nice £9 on the half time market and thought I would try and get in early on the full time result as the odds were getting too low on the half time result and the odds usually take a dive at half time. I got caught out and took a £30 loss - now I have several windows open on my software and a few open on the computer too and I started arranging them, I noticed that at 2-1 the price for Vitesse to go on and win was 1.85ish which bearing in mind they looked the more dangerous and better side was too big, whilst I was arranging the windows Vitesse scored again - I was kicking myself big time as I had wanted to get on the big price with a third goal looking possible - ah well - so 3-1 up before half time and playing at home - that reputation that Ajax had still let Vitesse odds at initially 1.39 but gone in a flash down to a still way over priced 1.32/1.33 (which is where I backed) and within a minute to a still too high 1.26 which settled down at half time to around 1.23 - I had backed with double stakes and traded out at 1.26 which brought the loss from £30 to £15 and a total loss on the match to only £6. This game highlights to me why it is so important to watch a match and gauge how teams are playing.
Spurs v Arsenal - I had a suspicion it might be low scoring or put it another way, I thought that when these two teams match up there usually is a lot of goals but I had a feeling that they come late i.e. from the 2nd half onwards. They battle each other for 45 minutes and then the gaps start to appear as legs start to get tired around the 60 minute mark - that was what I was thinking pre match. After watching for a while it appeared to me that the Arsenal defence is too good and disciplined for Spurs and Arsenal lacked potency - This was further underlined when Adebayor got injured and Arsenal got a player got sent off - made for fairly straight forward trading - I was talking to a mate and he was saying that in your mind you should have a preconceived idea of how an event will pan out and if it pans out that way then get your money on however if things are not panning out the way you thought then you should tread carefully. £32 profit - £26 for the day and target made.
West Ham v Man Utd - I didnt trade at all in the first half - I wanted to just enjoy the match - I underestimated West Ham and their defensive qualities, pre-match I thought Manchester United would rip them apart - I was expecting a 3-1, 4-0 win, my preconceived idea of what I thought would happen didnt transpire and it was the 2nd half that the realisation that all of Man Utd's huff and puff was getting solidly met with an excellent West Ham side - I had seen them before against Hull but for all of their good work which was impressive they were playing Hull and not Manchester Utd - my view has been changed on West Ham.
So with a confidence that this was going to be a draw and the draw odds dropping by 3 ticks per minute - I had to have a slice of those profits. Literally as you place and get filled at one price you can lay at 2 to 3 ticks below and get them filled almost immediately, you can wait and see what is happening in the match and decide not to lay immediately, for example if West Ham had a goal kick, then what's the point in laying them at that time when no goal is likely to happen or danger occur until the ball is in the air, headed a few times, midfielders gain control etc... all of this takes time so you lay when you think the danger becomes more immediate or when the profit is acceptable.
It was the former that led me to my trade of the week. I had backed at 2.20, the ball was in Manchester United's half with no imminent danger, the ball went out to the right, the price had dropped to 2.16, was fluttering at 2.14, a long diagonal ball to the left which the defender headed out for a corner - he shouldnt have put it out as he could have left it for a goal kick - would have suited my strategy better as the price would have dropped to 2.12/2.10 instead the price went out to 2.20 - I traded out at 2.20 when I could easily have left it as the defending was good, as proved as the ball was cleared out, Scholes picked out Giggs on the left wing, cut in once, cut in twice, kicked the ball with his right foot towards goal, went through a packed penalty box and into the goal - my trade out is my trade of the week. I used to play poker on line (not very well but good enough) and I draw on a lot of advice gleaned from poker - one of them being is this: Do you want me to increase the profits by making you win more or would you prefer me to increase your profits by stopping you losing as often - doesnt really matter does it - more profits is more profits but people tend to forget that a good save on losses will effect the total profits. £6.80 in profit from this game - could have been a £60 to £80 loss.
Sporting Lisbon v Braga - again reputations - Braga better side - match was 4th v 6th - £26 profit and last time I looked Braga were winning 3-1.
Marseille v Bordeaux - French football - I suspect I have an opinion of French football but I haven't watched enough of it to confirm it (thank god) £8 profit.
Osasuna v Valencia - Spanish football a lot more fun and a £10 profit.
I wasnt going to do trading Sunday evening but the family decided to watch Demons for the 2nd time - live streams on computer lets me off this and when my wife decided to watch the Baftas it was enough to send me upstairs to watch football instead. Having made a good bit from trading I decided to stop and relax and watch 32 minutes of highlights of my club's weekend's match - I like football - there are clues about what I like...
Results:
£79.21 - 9.82%
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