18th January

With 3 matches all starting within 30 minutes of each other it was a matter of which were going to have the liquidity, which had big favourites and of course how each team played.

I'll start with the NEC v Ajax match, the first half was all about Ajax and they must have missed 4 or 5 clear cut chances and were a far better side than their opponents and with that in mind it's tricky to bet on an outcome that you dont think will occur i.e. under 2.5 goals and a half time draw - but I took some opportunities and was up 6ish quid by half time as the score remained 0-0. Into the 2nd half and Ajax scored early and confident they would go on to win by a comfortable margin, I backed them with 1.5 times the normal stakes i.e. £246, within a couple of minutes NEC scored leaving me facing a big loss. I thought this through, did I believe Ajax would win, answer yes, how long will I leave it until I take the hit and lose approx. £135 - not sure. I left it for 4 minutes and Ajax regained the lead - not wanting to get caught again I greened up, did a little trading and decided that it wasnt worth it and concentrated on the other two games that were being played.

West Ham v Fulham - West Ham took the lead early in the 6th minute and I felt confident they would go on and win, I started trading the West Ham half time market, I was making money and all was going well. I was in the process of greening up and the £20 figure was in the market waiting to be matched and Fulham scored a 30 yarder past the West Ham goalie, this time it wasnt a matter of waiting to see if West Ham could regain the lead as there was only 15 minutes to half time so I took the loss of £13 and traded a little to half time and reduced the loss to around a fiver. It was about the time I gave up on the NEC v Ajax match that I switched over to the West Ham match again and West Ham were about to take a penalty from which they scored and I wanted to back West Ham for the remainder of the match but the odds were quite low with 30 minutes left to go - so I left it and concentrated on the Aberdeen v Celtic match.

Aberdeen v Celtic - Aberdeen had taken the lead against the big favourites - so trading on a result that you dont think will happen makes it tricky, Celtic equalised within a minute. Around the 30 minute mark Aberdeen scored again - oh my what to do? Mostly I like to do nothing until certainty or good mark of certainty returns. Aberdeen went on to win 4-2 and West Ham 3-1 and for trading purposes, it's tricky trading conditions that can be your downfall and if you can come through these then I'm confident profits can be made in the easy games to trade.

Tricky trading happens in a match (for me) when the favourite goes behind in the match or dominates and doesnt score, tricky trading happens when there are a lot of goals and those 3 matches above had 16 goals between them and 1 big favourite losing. From those three matches I made around £20.

The last three matches were far easier to trade;

Tottenham v Porstmouth final result was 1-1, both sides to me didnt look clinical in their finishing, they were both producing chances but half chances and not excellent chances and I made a profit of over £50 - I will say this about the 2nd half of a match - lets say that it's drawing at half time and the odds for a draw is 2.40, over the next 45 minutes the odds will obviously fluctuate but if the sides dont score the odds at full time will be 1.00. So 140 divided by 45 means that the odds should come down at a rate of around 0.03 per minute. In this match with 1 minute left to play, the odds on a draw was 1.36 - sure there's injury time and you have to factor that into your calculations, in this case I got a £168 bet got matched at 1.36 and within 30 seconds traded out for £16 profit as the relentless tick tock of the clock means that the ultimate 1.00 odds are only a few minutes away, I got out at 1.26.

Lazio v Juventus and Almeria v Athletico Madrid both behaved themselves and they both finished 1-1. The easy games gives you the profits. These two games gave me £60.

Results:

£136.34 - 12.19%