22 January

A day of luck.

Tennis.

Good luck comes to those who least deserve it, and today that was me, a poor decision was rewarded on the tennis.

Venus Williams was playing some 20 yr old and I backed her to win 2-0, Venus broke and I traded out for a small win on small stakes.

Gulbis v Andreev - I noticed the same patterns as yesterday, but I didnt like what I was watching so only did it once and again for pennies.

Murray v Granollers - I backed Murray to win 3-0 but in the first two games, I thought he was taking it for granted that he would beat his opponent and I decided to trade out my £50 stake for again pennies. Murray promptly broke and Granollers broke back immediately. Something not right about Murray - so I didnt trade any more until I noticed there was game betting - now game betting is something I like if I am confident in either the server holding his serve and the odds are right (Murray was 1.05 to hold his serve - so completely the wrong odds) or if the return of serve player is excellent and the server is weak. I backed Murray @ 2.50 to break and then promptly layed the bet @ 2.40 before the first point of the game had started.

So there it is frustrated with the tennis, not feeling too confident on tennis at the moment, £3 banked and I noticed that my internet stream of the match was about 1.5 seconds ahead of eurosport's coverage, so with this in I mind I had been pressing the back button on whoever had just hit the winning shot at 1.01 and each time I did it I seemed that I missed out by 0.5 to 1.0 seconds. Until the 3rd set 5th game - Murray was leading love-40 on Granollers serve, he hits the winning shot I press the button the bet seems to be going through, I look up at the TV and the winning shot had just gone out! oh dear or words that dont resemble those at all, I watch as the back bet looks to get filled at 1.01 - oh did I forget to mention the stake was £400!! not sure if you have ever been in that state whereby you want to swear and swear out loud and normally that is precisely what you do but you are so dumbfounded that it's hard enough to breathe out let alone swear, well that was me. What can I tell you, the Layers in the market have faster internet connections than me and my 1.01 got matched at 1.12, I immediately layed the same £400 @1.12 but there were others at higher in the market and the next point was about to be played, If I changed the price it would take time, if I cancelled then I got no chance of getting matched. Some of it got taken but not all of it and I saw Murray hit the winning shot and I cancelled the remainder for a £39.22 profit - jammy barsteward. As I said, poor play leads to undeserved rewards - I feel like a chief executive at any of the banks.

So tennis - £42.82 profit.

Football:

Two matches of differing fortunes.

Kilmarnock v Ayr - trading on the under/over 2.5 market using £216 stakes - now if you remember a certain lad called Maradona punching the ball into the net, well replicate that but with the linesman and referee in no position to see it then you can see what luck I got - bad luck and a £108.25 loss. Kilmarnock were the favourites and trading then became impossible as I was backing a result that I didnt think would ultimately be the result of the match as Ayr were the side with the cheating little barsteward, so I headed over to the next match.

Wrexham v Cambridge - double my stakes to get back the £108 loss - so I was using a stake of £432!, it worked out all right as it happens as I managed to get £30 from the under/over market and then I was out of the market as Wrexham scored - I thought they were most likely but not sure if they would actually score, but I was pretty sure Cambridge wouldn't. The odds on Wrexham started at 1.49 when the market resumed and I traded to a £13 profit, when I noticed that Kilmarnock had scored. Wrexham match got to half time and I took a peek at the Kilmarnock match.

Kilmarnock looked strong but Ayr looked resilient and determined, after watching for 5 minutes, I decided that it was unlikely that either side would score, so I entered the full time draw market, still using £432 stakes. Now in the past if a side is winning, I tend to leave an open bet on that side to win and hope they score a 2nd to seal the deal and if the other side looks to be likely to score, I just trade out and try again - now in this match I put a £432 bet up to get filled and I got £329 of it filled, I had placed another lay bet at a few points lower but it was the last price the market had traded and some of it got filled - but basically I had a good £300 open at 2.42. Someone got sent off and the market suspended. I didnt know this before, I knew the teams' market would get affected by a sending off but no idea what would happen to the draw market - I waited for the market to reform and it reformed around the 2.00 level and I hedged out for a lovely jubbly £70 profit - I wasnt dumbfounded I had a big grin on my face and laughed out loud. So the draw market plummets upon a sending off.

I left the two markets at that point, happy to have recouped the loss created by bad luck and a cheating Ayr Utd player.

Results:

£48.94 - 3.39%