6th January

Out to lunch with my wife meant that I missed the first tennis of the day and left me with a challenge of trying to make money out of Nadal vs Santoro (a 36yr old guy who has a good record against Federer and has achieved a reputation of being an awkward so and so due to his ability to spin the ball, mix up his shots etc... With odds of only 1.11 for a 2 sets to nil victory, I backed it and backed it and backed it again - having watched Nadal and Murray play last week there was absolutely no way Santoro would have enough to win a set - being the chicken I am I got out of the bet at the soonest possible moment at 1.06 and a £20 win - had I stayed with the bet a bit longer I would have relaxed and watch as Santoro only won 4 points during the first set and somehow avoided a 6-0 6-0 scoreline due to a net cord that gave Santoro the only game he would see in the match.


Football was football for the first match and only a broken stream stopped me on betting further on the match - the stream stopped at half time and although there was another streaming source available it was 5 minutes behind play so kinda useless.

Spurs v Burnley - Burnley played really well in the first half. The match started off with overs/unders 2.5 over 2.00 - I didnt want to get involved straight away as I like to see a couple of minutes play to assess the game. A lot of trying to feel out the opposition happens in the first 5 minutes of the game and gives a good opportunity to get some trades in, this coupled with the fact that the match is a coca-cola semi final played over 2 matches also means that there is no rush to score and build up a decisive lead from the off - so with some lolly made before a goal is scored and not in a trade when Burnley scored, I turned the O/U 2.5 market off with a nice little profit.

When a goal is scored the market is suspended and then switched back on meaning that punters have to either to create a market and be one of the first ones in on the new market or alternatively wait and see how the market settles. I am in the first camp as it can give a nice little profit straight away and this is how it was in this match - I came in with a back at 1.77 for Burnley to be ahead at half time and within 30 seconds I had traded out at 1.7 for a nice £3.50ish profit. Then as the first half was developing it was a matter of finding the right times to go in to the market and getting back out for profits.


As I mentioned going into a market just after a goal has been scored is a judgement call and when Spurs came out in the 2nd half and very quickly got 2-1 ahead I thought the right price for them was 1.15 to 1.16 and the market agreed but to my surprise the market kept rising. At least two things affect the market when you are backing a team who are winning to go on and win the match , the first being whether the opponents are capable of scoring - if they cant then the market goes down if they are capable and threatening then the odds go up, but this is countered or also affected by the time left to go in the match as the match goes further and further there is less time for the opposition to score and thus inevitably no matter how brilliant the opposition is the market will start to fall. To my surprise the market kept going up and I kept backing the Tottenham win - there was one chance for Burnley to score and then it sunk in that I had pressed the back button 8 times and the lay button twice (or rather only 2 of my lays had been matched) and I thought well the market cant keep going up and in the next minute or two I am going to have to trade out of this position even if it for a loss as I had £450+ on the back side of the market. It was just the size of the loss I was prepared to accept was the question and with a loss of only £3.50ish I thought yup can trade out for that and start again on this market at over inflated prices. Well the Russian spurs striker dummied to come inside on his right foot, flicked the ball to the left, left the defender flat footed and shot for a goal in the corner and the score was 3-1. I had a big smile and decided that I would let the market settle and see what price I can get for the lay bet and how big the profit was going to be. Of course the market settled at 1.06 - 1.07 and although fairly happy with the profit, I did think I was being a little bit ripped off but with over £450 still exposed and a nice tidy profit sitting there, I decided to get out, Spurs were on the attack and I was going to trade out as soon as the goalie had the ball in his hands, the next time he had the ball in his hands was to pick the ball out of the net and the price dropped down to 1.01 and I traded out for a very nice but very fortunate £89.62.

Finally I watched some bloody awful tennis being played by two ladies, neither of which could hold on to their serve, being new to trading tennis I didnt quite understand how I could make a profit out of these circumstances and only dabbled with £2 bets to get a feel of how it worked. I think I have sussed out a strategy for this but it took me deep into the 2nd set to work it out - i made £0.02 !

Results:

22.84%